"We didn't play well" - are Barcelona bad or unlucky, or both?

Athletic Club 0-0 Barcelona - La Liga

Barcelona lumbered their way to a 0-0 draw away in San Mamés. A result that, in most circumstances, would be admirable. But given that Real Madrid dropped points earlier in the weekend this was Barça’s chance to close the gap atop the table.

“When the Earth starts to settle, God throws a stone at it.” — Ultron

Xavi’s men came into the game off the back of a 4-0 demolition of Getafe as well, and really ought to have delivered a quality performance. Instead they started well before then spending the next hour and change getting repeatedly slapped in the face before at the end trying desperately to counter-punch but not having the steam.

"The game needed more play from our part,” said Xavi to LaLiga TV afterwards. “Our standards for ourselves is higher,” echoed Ilkay Gundogan to the same broadcaster.

Barcelona knew they flubbed their lines here, but is it because they’re bad or because they’re unlucky? Let’s have a look.

Barcelona are bad:

In the second-half of their match at San Mamés, Barcelona didn’t have a single shot on target. They managed just three shots total and not a single one troubled Unai Simon. The madcap Basque goalie didn’t have much to do, in truth, unlike in the first-half where he had to come steaming off his line to deny Fermin Lopez then scramble back and hook João Cancelo’s shot off the line.

Barcelona’s xG in that sad second-half was a ludicrous 0.19. Bar one Robert Lewandowski shot that was blocked and a half-chance where the ball ricocheted to Cancelo, they did nothing of note (well, almost nothing, but more on that later).

"It's not enough today, the game that we did." — Xavi

They had a week of rest (as opposed to their opponents who had a blockbuster cup tie midweek) so Barcelona didn’t run out of energy, but ideas. There was just no clear plan in how to break down the Athletic defence. None of the usual ball movement, getting it into Lewandowski to play off him, or working combinations out wide.

The plan appeared to be to give it to Lamine Yamal and wait for the teenager to produce a moment of magic from out of nowhere. That is, to quote Tony Stark “not a great plan.” It may work sometimes, but if you’ll forgive some Twitter-speak: spamming ISO and Inshallah for a 16 year-old is a fraud tactic.

After the match Xavi said he didn’t understand “why we lacked the ambition to win today considering the results of Girona and Real Madrid", which is a weird thing for a manager to say. You’d imagine imparting and fostering ambition in his players is one of his key jobs (and to be fair, it’s one of the few things he’s genuinely been good at).

But while it feels odd for Xavi to say that, it also feels like he was right, because beyond Lamine Yamal way too many of the players seemed comfortable with a draw at San Mamés. And okay, taken in isolation that’s a good result, but you’re in a title race boys! Show some ambition! And hey Xavi we know your ability to make subs was limited but maybe that triple change in the second-half could have included noted goalscorer Vitor Roque? Just a thought?

"There was more for us, in that game. If you smell it, you have to grab these kinds of opportunities." — Ilkay Gundogan

Barcelona are unlucky:

But here’s the thing: even with the match proceeding as it did, Barcelona should have beaten Athletic Club. They restricted the rampant Basques to basically just taking potshots at Marc-André Ter Stegen. The German was active but didn’t even have to make any of his classic miracle waves.

Jules Kounde and Pau Cubarsi were mostly rock solid, repeatedly making smart and decisive interventions to prevent Athletic from getting shots off. And with Ronald Araujo at his typically monstrous best and Andreas Christensen forming an effective screen, the Blaugrana defended better than they have in weeks.

“We defended well, that’s the only thing we did well today.” — Xavi

Yeah, they didn’t score. But they absolutely should have. In the first-half they had two glorious chances in the space of 10 seconds. The aforementioned chance for Fermin Lopez was a great one, with the young Spaniard denied only by a great save from his compatriot Unai Simon. Then when the rebound fell to João Cancelo, the Portuguese pinged a precision shot that was going in before Simon clawed it off the line, and it was still going to bounce in until Yeray Alvarez appeared to hook it clear.

Barcelona were tremendously unlucky not to score from that attack. And while they didn’t have a shot on-target in the second-half they surely would have done when Robert Lewandowski was fed by Cancelo and slotted the ball goalward from the penalty spot — only for Yeray to slide in from nowhere and block the ball. A tremendous defensive effort to stop a shot that, given the range and Lewandowski’s form, would have likely been a goal let alone a shot on-target. Yes, Yeray played exceptionally well, but that he was able to time both those last second interventions so perfectly is surely lucky to a degree.

Then there’s the penalty appeal. With 67 minutes on the clock, Lamine Yamal streamed into the box only for Alex Berenguer to run into the back of him, the clash of legs knocking the teenage prodigy clean off his feet. No spot-kick was given; not from the referee nor VAR. A ridiculous decision to go against Barcelona.

Sure, three major chances in one game isn’t exactly massive, but recall that Barcelona lost Frenkie de Jong to injury after just 26 minutes, destabilising their midfield structure. Pedri then had to leave the field with a hamstring problem just one minute before the half as well.

"We lost not just two points today, but two of our best players." — Ilkay Gundogan

That’s two of their four best midfielders out with what appear to be serious injuries: a rolled ankle and a hamstring issue) to go with another of their four best midfielders who is already out thanks to an ACL injury.

Ilkay Gundogan is the only one of Barcelona’s four best midfielders who is still fit, and while he is class the team loses a great deal of penetration when he has to play deeper on the field, which he did after Pedri’s injury. Barcelona’s clearest chance came via that double chance in the first-half, and Gundogan’s scything through-ball is what made that move happen. He can’t play that pass from a deeper position, and so when he was forced into that role, Barcelona lost so much thrust.

To say nothing of the fact that Barcelona will now have to face Napoli and likely Atlético Madrid without Frenkie de Jong, Pedri and Gavi. Those are three gargantuan talents to be missing, especially as they are all midfielders, and midfield is kind of the key position for a side like the Blaugrana. As we saw yesterday: when your midfield doesn’t function, then your side struggles to function.

And Barcelona struggled to function at San Mames.

They could still have gotten a result if their luck had swung the other way with the penalty call or either of Yeray’s incredible interventions, and that result would have had a huge effect to lift them to just 6 points behind Real Madrid. It would have closed the gap and made the title race feel alive (especially with one more Clásico still to come). Instead, the title race is still in a sort of limbo as 8 points is a chunky gap to chew up against a side like Real Madrid, who are both good and lucky.

Barcelona are bad AND unlucky:

Barcelona, meanwhile, are kind of bad and most certainly unlucky. Them being unlucky feeds into them being bad, too, with the injuries to key playmakers crippling their ability to play good football.

Even if they had beaten Athletic via any of the aforementioned swings of luck, it wouldn’t have been a good performance. That went out the window when Frenkie rolled his ankle, and for sure once Pedri did his hammy. Barcelona held on in the second-half but their back-ups are too inconsistent.

“I wish at times we'd show a bit more personality and show we're ready for these big tasks.” — Ilkay Gundogan

João Felix is back and that’s good but only from a squad rotation position. In terms of actual football he is so inconsistent as to be unreliable. He may do something good, but equally he may just flounce around the field doing absolutely sod all, which is what happened when he came on at San Mamés. Even Raphinha was a more effective left-winger and Raphinha is a rubbish left-winger! But you can’t count the Portuguese out because he’s liable to drift past a couple of markers and chip the goalie against Mallorca, just as he did against Atleti earlier in the season.

Whatever tactical intelligence Xavi has displayed during his time as Barcelona boss appears to be deserting him at a rapid pace as more and more, Barcelona keep becoming less coherent as a footballing side without the fragmented and disassociated performance of individuals.

Of course, Xavi will argue that it’s hard to build and implement a coherent footballing philosophy with no money to spend, a constant need to cut wages and a key playmakers getting injured every six seconds.

Barcelona missed Pedri for huge chunks of last season, severely hampering their ability to play well. The signing of Gundogan was to be a balm for such woes. Then Pedri got injured two games into the season and Frenkie soon after that. By the time Frenkie came back, Gavi went down. Pedri has been in and out of fitness or being given only restricted minutes to try and preserve his muscular integrity.

For comparison, everyone’s current golden man of management Xabi Alonso is working wonders over in the Bundesliga with Leverkusen, right? Right. They’re flipping marvellous and a spectacular example of Barça-style football.

Out of 24 games played, Leverkusen have two men who have started every game (Granit Xhaka and Alex Grimaldo), one who has started 23 games (Lukas Hradecky) and two who have started 22 times (Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong). Also: Jonathan Tah has started 21 games and Jonas Hofmann has started 20 games.

That’s 7 of Xabi Alonso’s starting XI who have a combined 5 games missed in the Bundesliga this season (Wirtz came off the bench twice, Frimpong once and Hofmann four times). That remarkable consistency of selection has enabled so much of the footballing wizardry on display.

Meanwhile Barcelona do not have a single player who has started every game. Gundogan has played in every game (he’s the only one) but has come off the bench three times.

Hofman’s 20 starts is 83.3% of the maximum 24. Now, 83.3% of Barcelona’s 27 possible starts comes to about 22.5 starts. The only players who meet this threshhold are Gundogan and Robert Lewandowski (23 starts out of 25 appearances) with Jules Kounde falling just below at 22 starts. So 2 of the starting XI.Are

Every time Xavi is on his way to solving a tactical dilemma, someone gets injured, completely disrupts his team composition and plans, and he has to start all over again because the financial issues Barcelona have prevent true squad depth.

“When the Earth starts to settle, God throws a stone at it,” was comic book supervillain Ultron’s justification for trying to kill everyone on the planet, but it’s easily appropriated to describe Barcelona’s squad in 2023/24.

Yes, Barcelona aren’t as coherent as they should be (bad). But it’s very hard to build a coherent footballing philosophy when all your key footballers are injury-prone (unlucky). However, it’s also worth asking why your key players keep getting injured all the god damn time (bad? unlucky? both!)