Ranking the Champions League last 16 ties
Ranking the Champions League last 16 ties
UEFA Champions League
The 2023/24 UEFA Champions League round of 16 is now official! Last week the teams were confirmed as the group stages wrapped up and now after another delightfully protracted draw, we’ve got our 8 ties.
So now we do what any red-blooded football fan does: WE RANK THEM. Not based on anything statistical, there’s far too much time until the matches themselves for that to be relevant; who knows how much will have changed by February?
No, this ranking is based on how likely the match-ups are to produce some deliriously intoxicating Gazprom. They will thus be ranked on their Expected Entertainment (xE).
8. Manchester City vs. Copenhagen
This tie will be fun for about five minutes and those five minutes will be after 18 year-old Roony Bardghji bags a worldie strike that sends commentators into a frothing hysteria exclaiming things like “HE’S NOT THE FIRST ROONEY TO SCORE A BLINDER AGAINST CITY!”
Of course it will probably be like 6-1 at that point. So it would be a most fleeting of joys. City are far too good for Copenhagen and while their recent misfortunes are very, very funny - it’s the start of December. By February they’ll have Kevin de Bruyne back and be in Terminator mode on one of those 14-game winning runs.
xE for Manchester City vs. Copenhagen: 0.5
7. Borussia Dortmund vs. PSV
As much fun as it was watching Dortmund top the so-called Group of Death, there was the nagging suspicion that had PSG taken at least a quarter of the billion shots they managed to have during their six games it would be the Parisians on top.
Nevertheless, we shall not begrudge Marco Reus more Champions League football. And under Edin Terzic they’re actually a fun side! The problem is PSV are pretty terrible and so this won’t be competitive enough to be entertaining.
xE for Borussia Dortmund vs. PSV: 1.3
6. Bayern Munich vs. Lazio
Lazio produced what was undeniably the best moment in the group stages back on Matchday One when Ivan Provedel headed in a 96th minute equaliser against Atlético Madrid. What’s more they are coached by the eternally enigmatic Maurizio Sarri and have Ciro Immobile, the Italian striker who has an impressive 12 goals in 21 Champions League appearances.
Of course leading the Bayern line is Harry Kane who has 25 goals in 38 Champions League appearances. The Englishman in Bavaria has unsurprisingly hit the ground running by being a Robert Lewandowski shaped peg for the Robert Lewandowski shaped hole at the head of the Bayern team.
This tie should be one-sided but there’s a chance that Sarri bamboozles the Bayern midfield with a passing carousel for the ages and as the Bundesliga has shown this season, Bayern can be got at.
xE for Bayern Munich vs. Lazio: 1.9
5. Real Madrid vs. RB Leipzig
Real Madrid have won as many European Cups and Champions Leagues (14) as RB Leipzig have played full seasons of football (14). Currently riding high in their 15th year, Marco Rose’s men will desperate to make a splash against the king’s of Europe.
What’s more, with two ex-Barcelona boys in their team (Dani Olmo and Xavi Simons) not to mention Timo Werner on his extended comeback tour, they definitely have the potential to spring an upset in the first-leg at least.
Of course, even with their long-term injuries, Madrid are still a formidable side. With Jude Bellingham aka Jude van Nistelrooy leading the way, you’d back Carlo Ancelotti’s men to progress to the quarter-finals. But it should be an entertaining tie against two teams who care more about goals than control (until the legendary Toni Kroos and Luka Modric come on and shut it down, anyway!)
xE for Real Madrid vs. RB Leipzig: 2.3
4. Arsenal vs. Porto
Arsenal are in a weird place right now because they are obviously a good football team, possibly a great one, but they’re also still a young football team who are prone to doing dumb things and playing with a real naivité.
Lens caught them out in the group stages and Porto, a ferociously competitive side, are well-placed to do the same. Alright you’d expect the Gunners to have too much for them, especially at the Emirates, but Porto are not a team to overlook.
xE for Arsenal vs. Porto: 2.8
3. Atlético Madrid vs. Inter Milan
This is going to be one hell of a European tie, just not if you like goals.
Atlético Madrid are a changed side this season, Diego Simeone has them flying and Alvaro Morata and Antoine Griezmann are the joint-top scorers of the group stage with 5 goals apiece! But this is knockout football against an elite team.
This will be hell, but in a good way!
Inter kept 5 clean sheets on their way to the Champions League final last season. They will look to sufferball their way through this tie as well and Atleti will more than likely oblige them. This tie could be decided by a single goal.
Of course, it could also be that both sides kind of forget how to defend and we end up with a barnstorming goalfest. That’s why this is so much fun!
xE for Atlético Madrid vs. Inter Milan: 3.3
2. Barcelona vs. Napoli
Both Barcelona and Napoli are immensely talented sides with gaping flaws in how they play football. That factor alone should lead to a bonkers, impossible to predict tie between these two sides that are, remember, defending champions of Spain and Italy!
On the one hand, Barcelona are the stronger side, and by February they should have everyone bar Gavi fit and firing, plus the addition of young Brazilian striker Vitor Roque. But on the other hand, Robert Lewandowski is ageing so fast you’d think he drank from the wrong cup at the end of the Canyon of the Crescent Moon and their most consistent forward is a 16 year-old child.
Napoli meanwhile are now being coached by footballing terrorist Walter Mazzari (although who knows come February!) which is definitely a bummer. That said they’ve also got the dynamic duo Kvicha Kvaratskhelia and Victor Osimhen up-front. While they’ve not been at their flying best this season they could ignite at any moment!
Osimhen’s duel with Ronald Araujo should be worth the price of admission alone - and then there’s the prospect of André-Frank Zambo Anguissa and Piotr Zielinski just bullying the fancy boys in the Barcelona midfield.
The last time Barcelona visited Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, they won a pulsating match 4-2. Now? This tie could go either way, and we’re talking each of these teams could absolutely splatter the other by the way. This could be ridiculous.
xE for Barcelona vs. Napoli: 7.3
1. Real Sociedad vs. PSG
Undoubtedly the tie of the round is Real Sociedad taking on PSG. That statement alone would have made absolutely no sense just six months ago, but now? It’s a different world.
On paper PSG have the firepower to blow anyone away, but football is played on grass and on grass PSG have all the cohesion of a soggy Digestive. They can and probably will create chances for fun, but will they take any of those chances? Will they threaten the floodlights and fans as much as the back of the net? Just how will Gianluigi Donnarumma embarrass himself this time? Who can say?
La Real, meanwhile, are a footballing dream. Impeccably coached by Imanol Alguacil, they all link harmoniously, move the ball intelligently and use it effectively. Watching Take Kubo run at whoever PSG are pretending is their left-back should be tremendous entertainment, as will watching Ousmane Dembélé battle with his burning compulsion to make the wrong decisions.
You would favour PSG, given their abundance of talent, but this will be closer than it seems upon first glance. Real Sociedad topped their group through a combination of poise, precision and audacity; to this they must now add resolve. If they can do that, they can shock the world, beat PSG and send Kylian Mbappé home.
xE for Real Sociedad vs. PSG: 9.1
xBD (Expected Bad Decisions) for Ousmane Dembélé: 28492.5 per-90